Florida's Atmospheric River

An atmospheric river will slam Florida and the Southeast with torrential rain. Are we ready for Hurricane Season?

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Bee Ridge neighbors, if you looked outside yesterday and today you saw the results of an atmospheric river that formed in the Gulf this weekend before slamming into Florida, the Southeast and southern Appalachia.

Forecasters warned that severe thunderstorms were possible in the area, and as the storm could fuel more than a half-foot of rain through early next week, there’s also a risk of dangerous flooding.

Atmospheric rivers — like rivers in the sky — are common along the West Coast during winter. But this one took a less typical path from the western Caribbean Sea to southern states. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected, with totals of 6 to 10 inches possible in the most persistently rainy spots, while localized downpours of more than 10 inches can’t be ruled out. The storm will begin to wind down into Tuesday as precipitation shifts into the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina will probably be hardest hit by dangerous downpours, including in some of the same places hit by deadly Hurricane Helene last year. While precipitation is generally needed, especially here in Florida because it will help with drought conditions and reduce wildfire risk, this storm will bring rain that falls hard and fast, leading to a risk of flooding.

What’s causing the flooding?

Meteorologists explain that the disturbance driving the downpours formed part of an unusual weather phenomenon called an omega block, which drenched the southern Plains, Gulf Coast and Northeast earlier last week. That pattern has since broken down into something called a rex block, but it has the same result — slow-moving, waterlogged weather systems are stuck in place, and there’s nothing to nudge them along.

The stationary low-pressure system continues to scoop north Gulf moisture, pinwheeling it ashore in the form of heavy downpours. Until the overall “rex block” pattern breaks down toward the middle of the week, that low pressure storm system will continue to stall and cause problems.

Early signs of hurricane season?

Weather scientists believe that fueling the atmospheric river is an eastward-moving pulse of rain and clouds, called the Madden-Julian Oscillation, moving into the Caribbean Sea.

When these pulses arrive in a region, they create conditions conducive to storm formation by enhancing atmospheric spin and increasing moisture availability.

Marine heat-wave conditions, such as those in the Caribbean Sea, can cause these storm-sparking features to focus over a particular area — and provide extra fuel for the upcoming atmospheric river.

While this early pulse is unlikely to spark a hurricane, it is perhaps an early signal that the waters south of the United States could be more unsettled this year and that coastal residents should be prepared for hurricane season, beginning June 1.

What to know and what to do?

Since the storms that hit Sarasota County last year, we have been involved in the rescue, cleanup, recovery and rebuilding our homes, business, parks and public infrastructure. The County Commission, its staff, a number of citizen groups and interested residents have been discussing the situation at County Commission meetings and specially called workshops. We have been trying to ascertain why we flooded, how effective the response has been and what needs to be done better to avoid future destruction, dislocation and adverse impacts on our quality of life.

There is one more County Commission workshop before the official onset of the Hurrican Season planned for May 21st from 1-5 pm. The workshop will review what has been accomplished to avoid storm damage this year, prioritize additional measures that can still be completed in time, consider medium- and longer-term solutions and prepare for the worst. If you can attend the workshop in person or watch its webcast you will be able to see our elected officials in action. In person participants will be able to speak during the public comment portion.

We ask you email to our elected county commissioners in advance of the workshop, share your concerns and expectations that they are doing everything possible to prepare for and avoid worst case scenarios, and not disappoint county residents. A draft message is provided below for you to use, cut and paste or write your own message.

Recommended Draft Message

Dear Commissioners,

As residents of Sarasota County residing in Commission District 1, we are fearful that our property and potentially our lives are at risk as we approach this year's storm season. Right now, we are feeling even more vulnerable and exposed following our experience with the unprecedented weather impacts affecting Sarasota County last year and the damage and dislocation that we experienced. 

What is especially concerning, is that with less than a month to go before the official start of Hurricane Season, we residents still have a limited understanding of what caused the inland flooding that devastated so many of our neighborhoods and communities from which many are still recovering and rebuilding. We acknowledge that the flooding and stormwater management issue has been discussed at many regular BCC meetings and various workshops that we have followed in person and via the media. However, it does not appear that there has been a well-coordinated all hands-on deck effort to identify the most urgent and readily implementable solutions to address known deficiencies using our own manpower and financial resources. In addition, we need to hear about the more complex medium- and longer-term solutions being planned such as revised zoning, building codes and other development standards, permits and intergovernmental cooperation being secured for major improvements, ways to mobilize local expertise and finance along with other forms of assistance from the state and federal governments being put to use or applied for.  

We know that it is a big job. Leading the county with its day-to-day activities along with the seemingly endless demands created by rapid population growth leaves little bandwidth to address such a complex set of unprecedented threats.  We also acknowledge that these are not normal times with temperatures rising, populations shifting, and the economy of the state and the nation slowing while the role of government itself evolves.   Nonetheless, we need to know that the workshop planned for May 21st will provide a clear statement of what we learned about what happened last September and provide authoritative answers how the county's resources are being used now, up to and during the approaching storm season to ensure that residents in new as well as older neighborhoods know what to expect and can make informed decisions about their own safety and welfare. 

Since, NOAA, NWS, FEMA and HUD are likely to be less able to assist this year and in the future given their downsizing, cancelation of programs and budget cuts we also need to know how our state and local governments intend to operate and meet the assistance needs associated with natural disasters from preparation and prevention, mitigation, evacuation, search and rescue, recovery and rebuilding and resiliency.

We look forward to receiving the agenda and information packages for the workshop as soon as possible so that we can review, discuss among ourselves and prepare to participate and be better informed before the rains start to fall.  

Names and email addresses for County Commissioners and key staff

To: Joe Neunder jneunder@scgov.net; Ron Cutsinger rcutsinger@scgov.net; Mark Smith mhsmith@scgov.net; Tom Knight tknight@scgov.net; Teresa Mast tmast@scgov.net

Also CC: Jonathan Lewis countyadninistrator@scgov.net; Spencer Anderson sanderson@scgov.net

Thank you for contacting our elected officials and participating in our local self-government as it grapples with a truly existential threat.

SEERD'S May Update

SEERD will be posting its May Update later this week to share with our neighbors the progress being made in mitigating lingering impacts associated with The Classical Academy. We will include details about some ongoing discussions that we are in with the County along with administrative and legal actions. We will also provide news about Sarasota County approvals for rezoning and special exceptions likely to impact the Bee Ridge neighborhood. Lastly, we will share progress with infrastructure improvements and how changes in the movement of people in and out of Florida, costs of living, and uncertain business conditions appear to be influencing planning and development across the County and in the Bee Ridge neighborhood.

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